Equity
$50,044
Buying Power
$162,952
Open Risk
7.6%
Available Risk $
$1,201
Allocated Risk $
$9,412
Daily P&L
0%
$0
Drawdown
0.21%
Trade Lifecycle
TradingView alert to ML, allocation, execution, and outcome
50
Candidates
15
ML Approved
35
ML Rejected
31
Allocation Approved
19
Allocation Rejected
45
Orders Submitted
0
Orders Filled
50
Closed Outcomes
Allocations
Policy-sized decisions and TradeStation execution state. Expand a row for full allocation details.
Date
Allocation
Timeframe
Decision
Actual / Intended Shares
Actual / Intended Risk
Cal P
Execution
Ledger
Jul 16, 26 WDAY open_long 60 approved 12 / 12 $200 / $200 57.13% close submitted closed
Risk %0.4%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares12
Intended Risk $$200
Raw P78.51%
Cal P57.13%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.0419
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$1,732
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence96.69%
Quarter Kelly2.23%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,676
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples15
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0869
Dist Stopout31.49%
Order ID962140315
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
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"symbol": "WDAY",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.78506994,
"calibratedProbability": 0.57126748,
"decision": "approved",
"approved": true,
"finalShares": 12,
"finalRiskPct": 0.004,
"allowedRiskDollars": 200.114744,
"intendedShares": 12,
"intendedRiskPct": 0.004,
"intendedRiskDollars": 200.114744,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": "distributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30",
"distributionSimilarityMode": "weighted",
"signalExpectedR": -0.041869948855071296,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0.14253497,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0.0125,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 1732.08,
"notionalAfterCaps": 1732.08,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.0892,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0.0862468028571258,
"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9668924087121726,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": 0.0223,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": 0.004,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": 0.001,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": 0.004,
"transitionCapApplied": false,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0.004,
"distributionSampleSize": 30,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": 53676,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": 30,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": 15,
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"DDV1_BATS_EW_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783438200000",
"DDV1_BATS_NET_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AXP_60_L_1784122200000",
"DDV1_BATS_SCHW_60_L_1783517400000",
"DDV1_BATS_BKR_60_L_1784057400000",
"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783708200000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAPL_60_L_1784050200000",
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"DDV1_BATS_PYPL_60_L_1783528200000",
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"distributionBaselineConfidence": 1,
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"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:44840",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:21361",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:31910",
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"distributionFallbackLevel": "unweighted_nearest_neighbors",
"distributionExpectedR": 0.08685490705729461,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.31485205624826973,
"rejectionReasons": [],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "close_submitted",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-16T16:30:23.976Z",
"brokerOrderId": "962140315",
"submittedQuantity": 12,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 145.6,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 145.6,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": "closed",
"allocationClosedAt": "2026-07-16T16:30:00.000Z",
"decidedAt": "2026-07-16T15:30:19.473Z"
}
Jul 16, 26 TRV open_long 60 approved 11 / 11 $201 / $201 56.12% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %0.4%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares11
Intended Risk $$201
Raw P74.47%
Cal P56.12%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0401
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$3,663
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence97.71%
Quarter Kelly0.91%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,675
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples15
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0483
Dist Stopout22.12%
Order ID962084668
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
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"symbol": "TRV",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
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"finalShares": 11,
"finalRiskPct": 0.004,
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"intendedShares": 11,
"intendedRiskPct": 0.004,
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"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
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"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 3663.33,
"notionalAfterCaps": 3663.33,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.0364,
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"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9771400029249782,
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"transitionBaselineRiskPct": 0.001,
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"distributionSampleSize": 30,
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"distributionFinalScenarioCount": 30,
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"submittedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:58.911Z",
"brokerOrderId": "962084668",
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"decidedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:58.558Z"
}
Jul 16, 26 AXP open_long 60 reduced 11 / 16 $134 / $201 55.23% close submitted closed
Risk %0.27%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares16
Intended Risk $$201
Raw P70.92%
Cal P55.23%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.0822
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$3,983
Notional Captrue
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence98.64%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,675
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples15
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.2432
Dist Stopout19.86%
Order ID962118126
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reducenotional_cap_reduced_size
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
{
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"symbol": "AXP",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
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"notionalBeforeCaps": 5792.96,
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
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"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [
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"distributionBaselineSampleSize": 30,
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"DDV1_BATS_MRSH_60_L_1784129400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AXP_60_L_1784122200000",
"DDV1_BATS_TRV_60_L_1783614600000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_PDD_60_L_1783953000000",
"DDV1_BATS_ELV_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_SLB_60_L_1783690200000",
"DDV1_BATS_EW_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_TFC_60_L_1783020600000",
"DDV1_BATS_ABBV_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_DIA_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_BABA_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AMZN_60_L_1784046600000",
"DDV1_BATS_CVS_60_L_1783431000000",
"DDV1_BATS_NET_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1783452600000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783438200000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783348200000",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:51835",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:29878",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:24414",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:42846",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:7153",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:41162",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:29828",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:16707"
],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "unweighted_nearest_neighbors",
"distributionExpectedR": 0.24322898069965762,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.1986043570790782,
"rejectionReasons": [],
"reductionReasons": [
"notional_cap_reduced_size"
],
"executionStatus": "close_submitted",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-16T15:30:21.889Z",
"brokerOrderId": "962118126",
"submittedQuantity": 11,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 363.14,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 363.14,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": "closed",
"allocationClosedAt": "2026-07-16T15:30:00.000Z",
"decidedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:57.321Z"
}
Jul 16, 26 VLO open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 55.79% TradingView exit received no_positive_kelly_edge
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P73.15%
Cal P55.79%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.096
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
Confidence98.69%
Quarter Kelly0%
Kelly After Cap0%
Transition Baseline0%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,675
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples15
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R-0.0329
Dist Stopout35.83%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_VLO_60_L_1784208600000",
"symbol": "VLO",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.73146884,
"calibratedProbability": 0.55786721,
"decision": "rejected",
"approved": false,
"finalShares": 0,
"finalRiskPct": 0,
"allowedRiskDollars": 0,
"intendedShares": 0,
"intendedRiskPct": 0,
"intendedRiskDollars": 0,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": "distributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30",
"distributionSimilarityMode": "weighted",
"signalExpectedR": -0.0960028938463207,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0.11573442,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0.0125,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 0,
"notionalAfterCaps": 0,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9869403331749488,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": 0,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": 0,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": 0,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": 0.004,
"transitionCapApplied": false,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0,
"distributionSampleSize": 30,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": 53675,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": 30,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": 15,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [
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"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783445400000",
"DDV1_BATS_NET_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AXP_60_L_1784122200000",
"DDV1_BATS_AON_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_BKR_60_L_1784057400000",
"DDV1_BATS_ABBV_60_L_1783521000000",
"DDV1_BATS_APD_60_L_1783355400000",
"DDV1_BATS_PAYX_60_L_1784122200000",
"DDV1_BATS_NSC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1784035800000",
"DDV1_BATS_ABBV_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_UNP_60_L_1784050200000",
"DDV1_BATS_PANW_60_L_1783366200000",
"DDV1_BATS_IBM_60_L_1783625400000",
"DDV1_BATS_SCHW_60_L_1783517400000",
"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783708200000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAPL_60_L_1784050200000",
"DDV1_BATS_MDB_60_L_1783521000000",
"DDV1_BATS_ITW_60_L_1783535400000",
"DDV1_BATS_XLV_60_L_1783625400000",
"DDV1_BATS_TRV_60_L_1783614600000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_PDD_60_L_1783953000000",
"DDV1_BATS_ELV_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1783539000000",
"DDV1_BATS_BABA_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AMZN_60_L_1784046600000",
"DDV1_BATS_EW_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_TFC_60_L_1783020600000"
],
"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [
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0.7022551275212978,
0.6876843566816402,
0.6694044686819072,
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0.45454545454545453,
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"distributionBaselineSampleSize": 30,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": 1,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [
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"DDV1_BATS_AXP_60_L_1784122200000",
"DDV1_BATS_NSC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1784035800000",
"DDV1_BATS_ABBV_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_TRV_60_L_1783614600000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_PDD_60_L_1783953000000",
"DDV1_BATS_ELV_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_BABA_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AMZN_60_L_1784046600000",
"DDV1_BATS_EW_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_TFC_60_L_1783020600000",
"DDV1_BATS_SCHW_60_L_1783697400000",
"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783949400000",
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"DDV1_BATS_CVS_60_L_1783431000000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783438200000",
"DDV1_BATS_MRSH_60_L_1784129400000",
"DDV1_BATS_DIA_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1783452600000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783348200000",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:2307",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:23353",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:18666",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:26153",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:33705",
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],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "unweighted_nearest_neighbors",
"distributionExpectedR": -0.032946171406201916,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.3583319460077269,
"rejectionReasons": [
"no_positive_kelly_edge",
"no_remaining_risk_budget",
"shares_below_minimum"
],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "tv_exit_signal_received",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-16T16:30:59.775Z",
"brokerOrderId": null,
"submittedQuantity": null,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 302.01,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 301.94,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": null,
"allocationClosedAt": null,
"decidedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:51.289Z"
}
Jul 16, 26 NET open_long 60 approved 11 / 11 $201 / $201 57.43% close submitted closed
Risk %0.4%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares11
Intended Risk $$201
Raw P79.72%
Cal P57.43%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0302
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$3,018
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence98.88%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,674
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples16
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1497
Dist Stopout29.17%
Order ID962118196
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_NET_60_L_1784208600000",
"symbol": "NET",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.79724366,
"calibratedProbability": 0.57431091,
"decision": "approved",
"approved": true,
"finalShares": 11,
"finalRiskPct": 0.004,
"allowedRiskDollars": 200.592464,
"intendedShares": 11,
"intendedRiskPct": 0.004,
"intendedRiskDollars": 200.592464,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": "distributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30",
"distributionSimilarityMode": "weighted",
"signalExpectedR": 0.03015227092990463,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 3018.4,
"notionalAfterCaps": 3018.4,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0.09887859149904847,
"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9887859149904846,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": 0.025,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": 0.004,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": 0.001,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": 0.004,
"transitionCapApplied": false,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0.004,
"distributionSampleSize": 30,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": 53674,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": 30,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": 16,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [
"DDV1_BATS_APD_60_L_1783355400000",
"DDV1_BATS_NET_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_AXP_60_L_1784122200000",
"DDV1_BATS_MPC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783708200000",
"DDV1_BATS_MPC_60_L_1783701000000",
"DDV1_BATS_JD_60_L_1784122200000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_ELV_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_EW_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_NSC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_TFC_60_L_1783020600000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1784035800000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783348200000",
"DDV1_BATS_UNP_60_L_1784050200000",
"DDV1_BATS_DDOG_60_L_1783953000000",
"DDV1_BATS_CRWD_60_L_1782934200000",
"DDV1_BATS_AON_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAPL_60_L_1784050200000",
"DDV1_BATS_GS_60_L_1784133000000",
"DDV1_BATS_DHR_60_L_1783362600000",
"DDV1_BATS_PYPL_60_L_1783528200000",
"DDV1_BATS_BSX_60_L_1783531800000",
"DDV1_BATS_MO_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_MDB_60_L_1783521000000",
"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783445400000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1783539000000",
"DDV1_BATS_DIA_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_CVS_60_L_1783431000000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783438200000"
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"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [
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"distributionBaselineSampleSize": 30,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": 1,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [
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"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783445400000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1783539000000",
"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783603800000",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:49045",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:49384",
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"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:331",
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"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:19805",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:44770",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:52969",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:38890",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:42522",
"historical:intraday_60m_frozen_child3:31344",
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],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "unweighted_nearest_neighbors",
"distributionExpectedR": 0.1496935883526268,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.2916937142572707,
"rejectionReasons": [],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "close_submitted",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-16T15:30:29.448Z",
"brokerOrderId": "962118196",
"submittedQuantity": 11,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 274.93,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 274.93,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": "closed",
"allocationClosedAt": "2026-07-16T15:30:00.000Z",
"decidedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:39.755Z"
}
Jul 16, 26 UNP open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 59.29% TradingView exit received no_positive_kelly_edge
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P87.17%
Cal P59.29%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.2501
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
Confidence97%
Quarter Kelly0%
Kelly After Cap0%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,673
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples17
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R-0.0838
Dist Stopout31.75%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_UNP_60_L_1784208600000",
"symbol": "UNP",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.87172731,
"calibratedProbability": 0.59293183,
"decision": "rejected",
"approved": false,
"finalShares": 0,
"finalRiskPct": 0,
"allowedRiskDollars": 0,
"intendedShares": 0,
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"intendedRiskDollars": 0,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": "distributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30",
"distributionSimilarityMode": "weighted",
"signalExpectedR": 0.2500857207121286,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0,
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"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 0,
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"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9700189389952525,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": 0,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": 0,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": 0.001,
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"transitionCapApplied": false,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0,
"distributionSampleSize": 30,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": 53673,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": 30,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": 17,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [
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"DDV1_BATS_MU_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_TRV_60_L_1783614600000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783438200000",
"DDV1_BATS_NET_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_CRWD_60_L_1782934200000",
"DDV1_BATS_MCD_60_L_1783535400000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1783539000000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_EW_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_SCHW_60_L_1783697400000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783348200000",
"DDV1_BATS_UNP_60_L_1784050200000",
"DDV1_BATS_SNOW_60_L_1783362600000",
"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783708200000",
"DDV1_BATS_GS_60_L_1784133000000",
"DDV1_BATS_MDB_60_L_1783521000000",
"DDV1_BATS_ELV_60_L_1783949400000",
"DDV1_BATS_NSC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1783452600000",
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Jul 16, 26 PII open_long D rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 59.95% not submitted no_positive_kelly_edge
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P89.79%
Cal P59.95%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
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Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
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Confidence91.71%
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Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
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Final Scenarios30
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Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R-0.015
Dist Stopout12.22%
Order IDNone
Raw Executionnot_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 16, 26 CBT open_long D reduced 1 / 39 $15 / $498 57.67% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %0.03%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares39
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P80.66%
Cal P57.67%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.1234
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$90
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence92.59%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,396
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples15
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1351
Dist Stopout17.44%
Order ID962034605
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reduceportfolio_risk_cap_reduced_size
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 15, 26 ADBE open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 58.87% TradingView exit received no_positive_kelly_edge
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P85.48%
Cal P58.87%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0841
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
Confidence97.1%
Quarter Kelly0%
Kelly After Cap0%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,665
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples14
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R-0.0339
Dist Stopout37.71%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
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"distributionExpectedR": -0.03391422488863398,
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"brokerOrderId": null,
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"decidedAt": "2026-07-15T14:30:56.612Z"
}
Jul 15, 26 PAYX open_long 60 approved 27 / 27 $199 / $199 57.97% close submitted closed
Risk %0.4%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares27
Intended Risk $$199
Raw P81.9%
Cal P57.97%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.106
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$3,011
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence98.7%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,665
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples14
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1824
Dist Stopout23.35%
Order ID962084405
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
{
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"symbol": "PAYX",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
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"finalRiskPct": 0.004,
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
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"DDV1_BATS_WDAY_60_L_1783614600000",
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"DDV1_BATS_DE_60_L_1783348200000",
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"DDV1_BATS_MA_60_L_1783449000000",
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],
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"submittedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:32.847Z",
"brokerOrderId": "962084405",
"submittedQuantity": 27,
"filledQuantity": null,
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"allocationStatus": "closed",
"allocationClosedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:00.000Z",
"decidedAt": "2026-07-15T14:30:49.377Z"
}
Jul 15, 26 JD open_long 60 approved 114 / 114 $199 / $199 56.57% close submitted closed
Risk %0.4%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares114
Intended Risk $$199
Raw P76.28%
Cal P56.57%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.0424
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$3,381
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence98.89%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,664
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples13
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.093
Dist Stopout27.81%
Order ID962084267
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_JD_60_L_1784122200000",
"symbol": "JD",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.76278649,
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"decision": "approved",
"approved": true,
"finalShares": 114,
"finalRiskPct": 0.004,
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"intendedShares": 114,
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"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
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"legacyKellyFraction": 0.13139324,
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"notionalBeforeCaps": 3381.24,
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"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
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"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9888962052335846,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": 0.025,
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"distributionSampleSize": 30,
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"distributionFinalScenarioCount": 30,
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"DDV1_BATS_DIA_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783438200000",
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"DDV1_BATS_CRM_60_L_1783348200000",
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"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783355400000",
"DDV1_BATS_BKR_60_L_1783618200000",
"DDV1_BATS_PYPL_60_L_1783528200000",
"DDV1_BATS_MCD_60_L_1783535400000",
"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1783539000000",
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"DDV1_BATS_CVS_60_L_1783431000000",
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"DDV1_BATS_TFC_60_L_1783020600000",
"DDV1_BATS_SCHW_60_L_1783697400000",
"DDV1_BATS_ABBV_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_SNOW_60_L_1783362600000",
"DDV1_BATS_MPC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_WDAY_60_L_1783614600000",
"DDV1_BATS_AMZN_60_L_1783528200000",
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],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "unweighted_nearest_neighbors",
"distributionExpectedR": 0.09303629316039247,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.2780619507148245,
"rejectionReasons": [],
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"executionStatus": "close_submitted",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:21.154Z",
"brokerOrderId": "962084267",
"submittedQuantity": 114,
"filledQuantity": null,
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"expectedEntryPrice": 29.88,
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"allocationStatus": "closed",
"allocationClosedAt": "2026-07-16T14:30:00.000Z",
"decidedAt": "2026-07-15T14:30:26.115Z"
}
Jul 15, 26 FTNT open_long D rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 61.08% not submitted total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P94.33%
Cal P61.08%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.2062
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence95.57%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,390
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples14
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1128
Dist Stopout10.96%
Order IDNone
Raw Executionnot_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 14, 26 RS open_long D rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 58.75% not submitted total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P85%
Cal P58.75%
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Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0456
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
Confidence94.26%
Quarter Kelly0%
Kelly After Cap0%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,390
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples12
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R-0.0178
Dist Stopout26.95%
Order IDNone
Raw Executionnot_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 14, 26 HUM open_long D rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 59.94% not submitted total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P89.78%
Cal P59.94%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.1425
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
Confidence94.52%
Quarter Kelly0%
Kelly After Cap0%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,390
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples12
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R-0.0253
Dist Stopout14.79%
Order IDNone
Raw Executionnot_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
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"decidedAt": "2026-07-14T13:30:54.767Z"
}
Jul 14, 26 CVS open_long D reduced 26 / 43 $305 / $495 61.16% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %0.62%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares43
Intended Risk $$495
Raw P94.66%
Cal P61.16%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.1268
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$2,771
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence95.58%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,390
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples12
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.2073
Dist Stopout0%
Order ID961597228
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reduceportfolio_risk_cap_reduced_size
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "CVS",
"timeframe": "D",
"action": "open_long",
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
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"brokerOrderId": "961597228",
"submittedQuantity": 26,
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Jul 13, 26 SCHW open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 57.02% TradingView exit received total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P78.08%
Cal P57.02%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.0191
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence97.98%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,653
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples12
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.171
Dist Stopout35.31%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reduceloss_streak_reduced_size
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "SCHW",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
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"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9797887188532173,
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"distributionSampleSize": 30,
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"DDV1_BATS_PANW_60_L_1783366200000",
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}
Jul 13, 26 MRSH open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 56.44% TradingView exit received total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P75.74%
Cal P56.44%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.1402
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence98.04%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,648
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples10
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1082
Dist Stopout29.65%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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}
Jul 10, 26 KO open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 55.19% TradingView exit received total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P70.77%
Cal P55.19%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0071
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence95.99%
Quarter Kelly0.96%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,641
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0244
Dist Stopout31.83%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "KO",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
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"approved": false,
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.038400000000000004,
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"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783348200000",
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"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783355400000",
"DDV1_BATS_DE_60_L_1783348200000",
"DDV1_BATS_APD_60_L_1783355400000",
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"distributionBaselineSampleSize": 30,
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"submittedAt": "2026-07-13T17:30:05.195Z",
"brokerOrderId": null,
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"decidedAt": "2026-07-10T15:30:28.478Z"
}
Jul 10, 26 TGT open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 56.53% TradingView exit received total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P76.14%
Cal P56.53%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0682
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence95.26%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,640
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.2237
Dist Stopout30.38%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "TGT",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
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"decision": "rejected",
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"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
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"confidenceMultiplier": 0.9526252613481859,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": 0.025,
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"transitionBaselineRiskPct": 0.001,
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"transitionCapApplied": false,
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"distributionSampleSize": 30,
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"distributionFinalScenarioCount": 30,
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"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [
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"DDV1_BATS_SCHW_60_L_1783517400000",
"DDV1_BATS_MDB_60_L_1783521000000",
"DDV1_BATS_PLTR_60_L_1783344600000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1782930600000",
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"DDV1_BATS_COIN_60_L_1783438200000",
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"DDV1_BATS_PANW_60_L_1783366200000",
"DDV1_BATS_MO_60_L_1783603800000",
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"DDV1_BATS_MRNA_60_L_1782999000000",
"DDV1_BATS_AMGN_60_L_1782919800000",
"DDV1_BATS_NSC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_TFC_60_L_1783020600000",
"DDV1_BATS_ABBV_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_ZS_60_L_1783362600000",
"DDV1_BATS_AMZN_60_L_1783528200000",
"DDV1_BATS_PSX_60_L_1783355400000",
"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783603800000",
"DDV1_BATS_CSX_60_L_1783539000000",
"DDV1_BATS_AAL_60_L_1783452600000",
"DDV1_BATS_SNOW_60_L_1783362600000",
"DDV1_BATS_CRM_60_L_1783348200000",
"DDV1_BATS_XLI_60_L_1783020600000",
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"submittedAt": "2026-07-10T15:31:06.211Z",
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"decidedAt": "2026-07-10T14:31:15.183Z"
}
Jul 10, 26 PAYX open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 55.73% TradingView exit received total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P72.93%
Cal P55.73%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.0097
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence96.1%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,640
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0887
Dist Stopout31.75%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "PAYX",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
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"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.1,
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"distributionSampleSize": 30,
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"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [
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"DDV1_BATS_FTNT_60_L_1783603800000",
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"DDV1_BATS_NSC_60_L_1783449000000",
"DDV1_BATS_ABBV_60_L_1782930600000",
"DDV1_BATS_CRWD_60_L_1782934200000",
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Jul 10, 26 ABNB open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 56.68% TradingView exit received total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P76.71%
Cal P56.68%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.0025
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence95.78%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,640
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.2004
Dist Stopout28.15%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "ABNB",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
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Jul 10, 26 ALL open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 57.51% TradingView exit received total_open_risk_cap_hit
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P80.05%
Cal P57.51%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.1534
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence92.67%
Quarter Kelly1.53%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,639
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0529
Dist Stopout32.81%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "ALL",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
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"distributionSampleSize": 30,
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}
Jul 10, 26 WTFC open_long D reduced 36 / 39 $454 / $498 58.32% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %0.91%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares39
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P83.27%
Cal P58.32%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0615
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$5,840
Notional Captrue
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence96.57%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,387
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.23
Dist Stopout7.23%
Order ID961180976
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reducenotional_cap_reduced_size
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
{
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"symbol": "WTFC",
"timeframe": "D",
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Jul 10, 26 ADAM open_long D reduced 649 / 875 $369 / $498 59.81% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %0.74%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares875
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P89.25%
Cal P59.81%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0296
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$5,971
Notional Captrue
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence95.72%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
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Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1867
Dist Stopout10.87%
Order ID961180975
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reducenotional_cap_reduced_size
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 10, 26 URI open_long D approved 2 / 2 $498 / $498 58.9% close submitted closed
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares2
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P85.59%
Cal P58.9%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.1005
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$2,176
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence97.25%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,387
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.2133
Dist Stopout0%
Order ID961381020
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 13, 26
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Jul 10, 26 AVTR open_long D approved 273 / 273 $498 / $498 60.3% close submitted closed
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares273
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P91.21%
Cal P60.3%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.2124
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$2,894
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence96.28%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
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Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
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Order ID962034368
Raw Executionclose_submitted
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Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
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Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
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Jul 10, 26 YETI open_long D approved 112 / 112 $498 / $498 58.93% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares112
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P85.74%
Cal P58.93%
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Similarityweighted
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Fixed TF Risk0.5%
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Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
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Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
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Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1101
Dist Stopout25.25%
Order ID961180937
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 10, 26 BAC open_long D reduced 100 / 120 $414 / $498 59.1% close submitted closed
Risk %0.83%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares120
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P86.4%
Cal P59.1%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.1293
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Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$5,964
Notional Captrue
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence97.26%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,387
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0685
Dist Stopout17.86%
Order ID961799750
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reducenotional_cap_reduced_size
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 15, 26
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Jul 10, 26 IRM open_long D approved 14 / 14 $392 / $392 57.51% close submitted closed
Risk %0.79%
Intended Risk %0.79%
Intended Shares14
Intended Risk $$392
Raw P80.02%
Cal P57.51%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
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Signal Exp R0.1541
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Fixed TF Risk0.5%
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Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.79%
Confidence96.73%
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Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
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Dist Samples30
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Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0245
Dist Stopout21.48%
Order ID961380892
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 13, 26
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Jul 10, 26 EXPE open_long D approved 19 / 19 $499 / $499 58.62% close submitted closed
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares19
Intended Risk $$499
Raw P84.48%
Cal P58.62%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.1709
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
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Notional$5,088
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence97.19%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
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Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,386
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Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.3474
Dist Stopout10.62%
Order ID961381015
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 13, 26
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Jul 10, 26 MSM open_long D reduced 49 / 59 $409 / $498 60.31% close submitted closed
Risk %0.82%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares59
Intended Risk $$498
Raw P91.23%
Cal P60.31%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0138
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$5,912
Notional Captrue
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence99.02%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,386
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Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.2621
Dist Stopout0%
Order ID961596896
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reducenotional_cap_reduced_size
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 14, 26
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Jul 9, 26 FTNT open_long 60 approved 15 / 15 $200 / $200 56.7% close submitted closed
Risk %0.4%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares15
Intended Risk $$200
Raw P76.78%
Cal P56.7%
Policydistributional_kelly
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Similarityweighted
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Transition Baseline0.1%
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Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0448
Dist Stopout35.09%
Order ID961064959
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 9, 26
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Jul 9, 26 DIA open_long 60 reduced 7 / 19 $73 / $200 55.57% close submitted closed
Risk %0.15%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares19
Intended Risk $$200
Raw P72.28%
Cal P55.57%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.0329
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$3,667
Notional Captrue
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence93.66%
Quarter Kelly0.99%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0%
Transition Max0.4%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples53,634
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
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Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.0352
Dist Stopout35.25%
Order ID961293136
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reducenotional_cap_reduced_size
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 10, 26
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Jul 9, 26 LNTH open_long D approved 30 / 30 $500 / $500 60.33% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares30
Intended Risk $$500
Raw P91.32%
Cal P60.33%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.1341
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$3,238
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
Confidence97.32%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
Transition Appliedfalse
Dist Samples30
Eligible Samples35,386
Final Scenarios30
Invalid Samples0
Baseline Samples30
Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1162
Dist Stopout10.23%
Order ID960998652
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 9, 26 CSX open_long 60 reduced 81 / 108 $150 / $200 56.93% close submitted closed
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Intended Risk %0.4%
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Raw Executionclose_submitted
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Ledger ClosedJul 9, 26
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Jul 9, 26 LRCX open_long D approved 5 / 5 $501 / $501 58.09% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares5
Intended Risk $$501
Raw P82.36%
Cal P58.09%
Policydistributional_kelly
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Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
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ReduceNone
Ledgeropen
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Jul 8, 26 EQIX open_long D approved 5 / 5 $497 / $497 59.84% close submitted closed
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares5
Intended Risk $$497
Raw P89.35%
Cal P59.84%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
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Signal Exp R0.0599
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Fixed TF Risk0.5%
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Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk1%
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Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap1%
Transition Baseline0.25%
Transition Max1%
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Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1458
Dist Stopout19.84%
Order ID960998426
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 9, 26
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Jul 8, 26 SLB open_long D approved 122 / 122 $497 / $497 58.4% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %1%
Intended Risk %1%
Intended Shares122
Intended Risk $$497
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Cal P58.4%
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Order ID960809501
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
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SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 7, 26 PSX open_long 60 reduced 22 / 72 $60 / $199 57.16% close submitted closed
Risk %0.12%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares72
Intended Risk $$199
Raw P78.65%
Cal P57.16%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
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Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$3,894
Notional Captrue
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.4%
Confidence88.79%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
Transition Baseline0.1%
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Dist Samples30
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Baseline Confidence100%
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Dist Exp R0.2339
Dist Stopout20.72%
Order ID960852599
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
Reducenotional_cap_reduced_size
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 8, 26
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Jul 7, 26 MRNA open_long 60 approved 7 / 7 $199 / $199 56.3% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %0.4%
Intended Risk %0.4%
Intended Shares7
Intended Risk $$199
Raw P75.19%
Cal P56.3%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R-0.0873
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Fixed TF Risk0.4%
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Notional$560
Notional Capfalse
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Confidence94.13%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.4%
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Dist Samples30
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Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.1031
Dist Stopout21.3%
Order ID960728739
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgeropen
Ledger ClosedNone
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Jul 7, 26 MOG.A open_long D approved 6 / 6 $250 / $250 59.7% close_order_failed closed
Risk %0.5%
Intended Risk %0.5%
Intended Shares6
Intended Risk $$250
Raw P88.78%
Cal P59.7%
Policydistributional_kelly
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Dist Exp R0.2437
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Order ID962140435
Raw Executionclose_order_failed
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
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Jul 7, 26 GWW open_long D approved 2 / 2 $250 / $250 61.38% close submitted closed
Risk %0.5%
Intended Risk %0.5%
Intended Shares2
Intended Risk $$250
Raw P95.53%
Cal P61.38%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatordistributional_kelly_v3_raw_nearest30
Similarityweighted
Signal Exp R0.1166
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$2,742
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0.5%
Confidence98.25%
Quarter Kelly2.5%
Kelly After Cap0.5%
Transition Baseline0.13%
Transition Max0.5%
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Dist Samples30
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Baseline Confidence100%
Dist Fallbackunweighted_nearest_neighbors
Dist Exp R0.3778
Dist Stopout6.51%
Order ID961381016
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 13, 26
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Jul 7, 26 CRS open_long D approved 5 / 5 $250 / $250 58.95% close_order_failed closed
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Raw Executionclose_order_failed
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Ledger ClosedJul 16, 26
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Jul 7, 26 ROST open_long D approved 18 / 18 $250 / $250 58.67% close submitted closed
Risk %0.5%
Intended Risk %0.5%
Intended Shares18
Intended Risk $$250
Raw P84.7%
Cal P58.67%
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Dist Stopout32.77%
Order ID961180278
Raw Executionclose_submitted
FilledNone
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Ledgerclosed
Ledger ClosedJul 10, 26
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Jul 7, 26 HOG open_long D approved 75 / 75 $250 / $250 58.97% entry submitted + protective stop active open
Risk %0.5%
Intended Risk %0.5%
Intended Shares75
Intended Risk $$250
Raw P85.9%
Cal P58.97%
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Fixed TF Risk0.5%
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Dist Exp R0.2064
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Order ID960582893
Raw Executionentry_submitted_stop_submitted
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"distributionBaselineSampleSize": 30,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": 1,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:44593",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:38056",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:5834",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:22990",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:5073",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:4113",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:38540",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:16361",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:45230",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:43398",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:25476",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:29563",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:43073",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:29539",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:33755",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:6759",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:41485",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:33970",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:44047",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:13974",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:10951",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:9639",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:12645",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:2799",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:38122",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:43736",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:31309",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:6332",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:35037",
"historical:daily_weekly_frozen_live_v2:30595"
],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "unweighted_nearest_neighbors",
"distributionExpectedR": 0.2064420850474386,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.034106625572652025,
"rejectionReasons": [],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "entry_submitted_stop_submitted",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-07T13:30:26.648Z",
"brokerOrderId": "960582893",
"submittedQuantity": 75,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 25.35,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": null,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": "open",
"allocationClosedAt": null,
"decidedAt": "2026-07-07T13:30:20.744Z"
}
Jul 6, 26 PLTR open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 55.39% TradingView exit received shares_below_minimum
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P71.57%
Cal P55.39%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatorunknown
Similarityunknown
Signal Exp R-0.0097
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
ConfidenceNone
Quarter KellyNone
Kelly After CapNone
Transition BaselineNone
Transition MaxNone
Transition AppliedNone
Dist Samples3
Eligible SamplesNone
Final ScenariosNone
Invalid SamplesNone
Baseline SamplesNone
Baseline ConfidenceNone
Dist Fallbacktimeframe_probability_shrunk_to_global
Dist Exp R0.1292
Dist Stopout27.27%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_PLTR_60_L_1783344600000",
"symbol": "PLTR",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.71570962,
"calibratedProbability": 0.5539274,
"decision": "rejected",
"approved": false,
"finalShares": 0,
"finalRiskPct": 0,
"allowedRiskDollars": 0,
"intendedShares": 0,
"intendedRiskPct": 0.0000010000000000000002,
"intendedRiskDollars": 0.05000000000000001,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": null,
"distributionSimilarityMode": null,
"signalExpectedR": -0.009657974749530777,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0.10785481,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0.0125,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 0,
"notionalAfterCaps": 0,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.004,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0.000004000000000000001,
"confidenceMultiplier": null,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": null,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": null,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": null,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": null,
"transitionCapApplied": null,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0.0000010000000000000002,
"distributionSampleSize": 3,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": null,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": null,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": null,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [],
"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [],
"distributionBaselineSampleSize": null,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": null,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "timeframe_probability_shrunk_to_global",
"distributionExpectedR": 0.12918597333740925,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.2727272727272727,
"rejectionReasons": [
"shares_below_minimum"
],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "tv_exit_signal_received",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-06T15:30:08.667Z",
"brokerOrderId": null,
"submittedQuantity": null,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 130.81,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 133.02,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": null,
"allocationClosedAt": null,
"decidedAt": "2026-07-06T14:30:13.226Z"
}
Jul 6, 26 KRG open_long D rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 58.4% not submitted no_positive_kelly_edge
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P83.59%
Cal P58.4%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatorunknown
Similarityunknown
Signal Exp R0.0973
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
ConfidenceNone
Quarter KellyNone
Kelly After CapNone
Transition BaselineNone
Transition MaxNone
Transition AppliedNone
Dist Samples0
Eligible SamplesNone
Final ScenariosNone
Invalid SamplesNone
Baseline SamplesNone
Baseline ConfidenceNone
Dist Fallbacksynthetic_global
Dist Exp R0
Dist Stopout0%
Order IDNone
Raw Executionnot_submitted
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_KRG_D_L_1782999000000",
"symbol": "KRG",
"timeframe": "D",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_child3_live_v2_live_v2_no_prior3_train_through_2022_test_2023_2026",
"rawProbability": 0.83588865,
"calibratedProbability": 0.58397216,
"decision": "rejected",
"approved": false,
"finalShares": 0,
"finalRiskPct": 0,
"allowedRiskDollars": 0,
"intendedShares": 0,
"intendedRiskPct": 0,
"intendedRiskDollars": 0,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": null,
"distributionSimilarityMode": null,
"signalExpectedR": 0.09732732435093362,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.005,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.12,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 0,
"notionalAfterCaps": 0,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"confidenceMultiplier": null,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": null,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": null,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": null,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": null,
"transitionCapApplied": null,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0,
"distributionSampleSize": 0,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": null,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": null,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": null,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [],
"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [],
"distributionBaselineSampleSize": null,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": null,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "synthetic_global",
"distributionExpectedR": 0,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0,
"rejectionReasons": [
"no_positive_kelly_edge",
"no_remaining_risk_budget",
"shares_below_minimum"
],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "not_submitted",
"submittedAt": null,
"brokerOrderId": null,
"submittedQuantity": null,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": null,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": null,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": null,
"allocationClosedAt": null,
"decidedAt": "2026-07-06T13:30:42.686Z"
}
Jul 6, 26 BNY open_long D rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 60.99% TradingView exit received no_positive_kelly_edge
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P93.94%
Cal P60.99%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatorunknown
Similarityunknown
Signal Exp R0.1097
Legacy Kelly Risk0%
Fixed TF Risk0.5%
Max Notional12%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
ConfidenceNone
Quarter KellyNone
Kelly After CapNone
Transition BaselineNone
Transition MaxNone
Transition AppliedNone
Dist Samples0
Eligible SamplesNone
Final ScenariosNone
Invalid SamplesNone
Baseline SamplesNone
Baseline ConfidenceNone
Dist Fallbacksynthetic_global
Dist Exp R0
Dist Stopout0%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_BNY_D_L_1782999000000",
"symbol": "BNY",
"timeframe": "D",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_child3_live_v2_live_v2_no_prior3_train_through_2022_test_2023_2026",
"rawProbability": 0.93940628,
"calibratedProbability": 0.60985157,
"decision": "rejected",
"approved": false,
"finalShares": 0,
"finalRiskPct": 0,
"allowedRiskDollars": 0,
"intendedShares": 0,
"intendedRiskPct": 0,
"intendedRiskDollars": 0,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": null,
"distributionSimilarityMode": null,
"signalExpectedR": 0.10967861295765749,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.005,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.12,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 0,
"notionalAfterCaps": 0,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"confidenceMultiplier": null,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": null,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": null,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": null,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": null,
"transitionCapApplied": null,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0,
"distributionSampleSize": 0,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": null,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": null,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": null,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [],
"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [],
"distributionBaselineSampleSize": null,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": null,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "synthetic_global",
"distributionExpectedR": 0,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0,
"rejectionReasons": [
"no_positive_kelly_edge",
"no_remaining_risk_budget",
"shares_below_minimum"
],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "tv_exit_signal_received",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-09T13:30:20.319Z",
"brokerOrderId": null,
"submittedQuantity": null,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 147.48,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 151.57,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": null,
"allocationClosedAt": null,
"decidedAt": "2026-07-06T13:30:26.446Z"
}
Jul 2, 26 CRWD open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 55.73% TradingView exit received no_positive_kelly_edge
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P72.9%
Cal P55.73%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatorunknown
Similarityunknown
Signal Exp R-0.0852
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
ConfidenceNone
Quarter KellyNone
Kelly After CapNone
Transition BaselineNone
Transition MaxNone
Transition AppliedNone
Dist Samples2
Eligible SamplesNone
Final ScenariosNone
Invalid SamplesNone
Baseline SamplesNone
Baseline ConfidenceNone
Dist Fallbacktimeframe_probability_shrunk_to_global
Dist Exp R-0.0693
Dist Stopout37.5%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_CRWD_60_L_1783013400000",
"symbol": "CRWD",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.72901997,
"calibratedProbability": 0.55725499,
"decision": "rejected",
"approved": false,
"finalShares": 0,
"finalRiskPct": 0,
"allowedRiskDollars": 0,
"intendedShares": 0,
"intendedRiskPct": 0,
"intendedRiskDollars": 0,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": null,
"distributionSimilarityMode": null,
"signalExpectedR": -0.08519913388310037,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0.11450999,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0.0125,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 0,
"notionalAfterCaps": 0,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 0,
"confidenceMultiplier": null,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": null,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": null,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": null,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": null,
"transitionCapApplied": null,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 0,
"distributionSampleSize": 2,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": null,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": null,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": null,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [],
"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [],
"distributionBaselineSampleSize": null,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": null,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "timeframe_probability_shrunk_to_global",
"distributionExpectedR": -0.06927905283304389,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0.375,
"rejectionReasons": [
"no_positive_kelly_edge",
"no_remaining_risk_budget",
"shares_below_minimum"
],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "tv_exit_signal_received",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-06T14:30:06.867Z",
"brokerOrderId": null,
"submittedQuantity": null,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 195.7,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 207.48,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": null,
"allocationClosedAt": null,
"decidedAt": "2026-07-02T18:30:28.464Z"
}
Jul 2, 26 MRNA open_long 60 rejected 0 / 0 $0 / $0 56.36% TradingView exit received shares_below_minimum
Risk %0%
Intended Risk %0%
Intended Shares0
Intended Risk $$0
Raw P75.45%
Cal P56.36%
Policydistributional_kelly
Allocatorunknown
Similarityunknown
Signal Exp R-0.0326
Legacy Kelly Risk1.25%
Fixed TF Risk0.4%
Max Notional8%
Notional$0
Notional Capfalse
Drawdown Mult1
Dist Kelly Risk0%
ConfidenceNone
Quarter KellyNone
Kelly After CapNone
Transition BaselineNone
Transition MaxNone
Transition AppliedNone
Dist Samples1
Eligible SamplesNone
Final ScenariosNone
Invalid SamplesNone
Baseline SamplesNone
Baseline ConfidenceNone
Dist Fallbacktimeframe_probability_shrunk_to_global
Dist Exp R0.5756
Dist Stopout0%
Order IDNone
Raw Executiontv_exit_signal_received
FilledNone
Avg FillNone
SlippageNone
ReduceNone
LedgerNone
Ledger ClosedNone
{
"signalId": "DDV1_BATS_MRNA_60_L_1782999000000",
"symbol": "MRNA",
"timeframe": "60",
"action": "open_long",
"modelVersion": "trade_quality_ablation_intraday_60m_child3_plus_prior_path_train_first_80pct_test_holdout_last_20pct",
"rawProbability": 0.75450939,
"calibratedProbability": 0.56362735,
"decision": "rejected",
"approved": false,
"finalShares": 0,
"finalRiskPct": 0,
"allowedRiskDollars": 0,
"intendedShares": 0,
"intendedRiskPct": 3.7037037037037036e-8,
"intendedRiskDollars": 0.001851851851851852,
"allocationPolicy": "distributional_kelly",
"allocatorVersion": null,
"distributionSimilarityMode": null,
"signalExpectedR": -0.03263155819326958,
"legacyKellyFraction": 0.1272547,
"legacyKellyRiskPct": 0.0125,
"timeframeFixedRiskPct": 0.004,
"maxNotionalPct": 0.08,
"notionalBeforeCaps": 0,
"notionalAfterCaps": 0,
"notionalCapApplied": false,
"drawdownMultiplier": 1,
"portfolioCapMode": "hard",
"rawDistributionalKellyPct": 0.004,
"shrunkDistributionalKellyPct": 1.4814814814814815e-7,
"confidenceMultiplier": null,
"quarterKellyRiskPct": null,
"cappedKellyRiskPct": null,
"transitionBaselineRiskPct": null,
"transitionMaxRiskPct": null,
"transitionCapApplied": null,
"finalKellyRiskPctBeforeSafetyCaps": 3.7037037037037036e-8,
"distributionSampleSize": 1,
"distributionEligibleSampleSize": null,
"distributionFinalScenarioCount": null,
"distributionInvalidSampleCount": null,
"distributionSelectedSampleIds": [],
"distributionSelectedSampleWeights": [],
"distributionBaselineSampleSize": null,
"distributionBaselineConfidence": null,
"distributionBaselineSampleIds": [],
"distributionFallbackLevel": "timeframe_probability_shrunk_to_global",
"distributionExpectedR": 0.5756453921078322,
"distributionStopoutRate": 0,
"rejectionReasons": [
"shares_below_minimum"
],
"reductionReasons": [],
"executionStatus": "tv_exit_signal_received",
"submittedAt": "2026-07-02T18:30:28.404Z",
"brokerOrderId": null,
"submittedQuantity": null,
"filledQuantity": null,
"avgFillPrice": null,
"expectedEntryPrice": 78.47,
"slippagePct": null,
"exitPrice": 79.17,
"realizedPnl": null,
"allocationStatus": null,
"allocationClosedAt": null,
"decidedAt": "2026-07-02T14:30:24.201Z"
}